Empires of AI – The Rise and Fall of a New Global Order

This essay argues that China and the United States have each built empire-like dominions over AI's foundational inputs—models, chips, infrastructure, and capital—giving them leverage over global innovation and knowledge. It contends that the decisive question is not who reaches artificial general intelligence first but who can finance the race, since both powers face fiscal strains: the U.S. crossed the "Ferguson limit" in 2024, paying more in interest than on defense, while China's AI debt is sovereign and its local governments borrow mainly to roll over old debt.